How To Make A Play On Crude Oil’s Dip

Earlier in the year, it seemed like natural gas was the commodity with little to no hope, as the fossil fuel posted some impressive losing streaks. But it seems that crude oil is hellbent on taking NG’s place, as WTI futures have slid for six consecutive days, making it the longest losing streak for this commodity in nearly two years. But crude’s rather volatile behavior in the past six months can be attributed to a number of macroeconomic factors pushing and pulling the asset in either direction [see also 25 Ways To Invest In Crude Oil].

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Commodity Trading Trends: Crude Oil Slipping

In the wide world of commodities, crude oil is developing an enticing downward trend. With that in mind, this fossil fuel represents a big opportunity in today’s markets, as its price has been tanking as of late. Crude has lost more than 8% of its price in the trailing five days as investors watched the fossil fuel close below $100 for the first time in recent memory. “The Energy Department said last week that U.S. crude inventories have risen to the highest level since 1990. That was followed by the Labor Department on Friday announcing the economy added only 115,000 jobs in April, far fewer than the 165,000 analysts were expecting” writes Pablo Gorondi.

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How To Profit From Rising Gasoline Prices

As gasoline prices continue to rise, Americans across the country have been feeling some major pain at the pump, shelling out anywhere from $3.52 to $4.57 per gallon just to fill up their tanks. The recent surge in prices have both foreign and domestic roots: overseas tensions coupled with U.S. fears of a shortage of refining capacity have pushed this essential commodity to painfully high levels [see also 25 Ways To Invest In Natural Gas].

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When in Doubt Go to Cash

Energy: I do not like the action in Crude so I advised clients to cut their shorts in half. Do not misinterpret me; I am not getting long but rather lightening up on short trades. Though I do not agree with the acceleration of commodities that we are seeing, I refuse to fight it. Hedgers should also start to wade into longs in heating oil and RBOB to protect from upside spikes. My suggestion is a long future against a sale of out of the money calls 1:1. High to low natural gas moved 30 cents. Tighten up stops just below the 18 day MA which should ensure at least a small profit unless we gap down tomorrow. My take is if we break that level we may get a chance to get one more buy below the $2 level…stay tuned.

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What Is Contango?

When it comes to commodity investing and trading, contango is a dirty word. Many investors have given contango a bad name (and rightfully so) as it has the ability to destroy value in an underlying position with the blink of an eye. Now that the ETF universe has rapidly expanded and there are a number of complex products offering exposure to the commodity world, contango has become more prevalent than ever. A number of investors have fallen prey to this phenomenon often without realizing what it was and how it impacted their holdings. Contango is simply a part of the commodity world and is not necessarily a bad thing, as it can create opportunities for profit [see also Understanding Contango: Natural Gas Example].

Posted in Academic Research, Commodity ETFs, Commodity Futures, Content Categories, Energy, Exclusive, Natural Gas, WTI | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Without the FED…Now What

Without further stimulus if the markets are forced to stand on their own two legs we should see a further retracement. My opinion on most commodities with a few exceptions is we have risk of more downside. Crude oil bounced off the 100 day MA today regaining 2/3 of yesterday’s losses closing 1.7% higher. I admit I expected some follow through today but the momentum is clearly shifting to the bears. I may be the minority but I am still looking for a sub $100 trade. My expectation is on a trade in May below $100 we could quickly move to $97.50…my target. Both heating oil and RBOB are at the lower end of their recent trading range as I expect a further sell off. Remember a $1 move in Crude should equate to a 3-4 cent move in the distillates. That would mean if the stars aligned and Crude … See the full story here

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Natural Gas and Company In Steep Contango

Contango is simply an unavoidable phenomenon of the commodity market; at some point almost all commodities will fall into this pattern. For those unfamiliar with the term, contango simply refers to a scenario in which near month futures are cheaper than those expiring further into the future, creating an upward sloping curve for future prices over time. Traders and investors need to keep a close eye on futures curves, as they can have a drastic impact on positions while also presenting opportunities for lucrative trades. Now that the ETF industry has cracked commodity investing wide open, monitoring contango has become more important than ever [see also Understanding Contango Through Natural Gas Futures].

Posted in Agriculture, Energy, Exclusive, Gold, Natural Gas, Precious Metals, Soybeans, WTI | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Brent Crude vs. WTI: The Best Performing Commodity

Crude oil is one of the most vital commodities in the world. Whether we realize it or not, it has a presence in our everyday lives and is a fuel that our world simply cannot function without. But when it comes to crude investing, traders have long had two choice staring them in the face; Brent oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil. The two have stumped many for quite some time, as they search for the intricacies that make these seemingly similar commodities inherently different. Beyond the attributes that set these two apart comes the question of which type of crude makes for a better investment. Recent historical data puts that question to rest, as one clear winner emerges [see also 25 Ways To Invest In Crude Oil].

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Five Commodity MLPs With Sky High Yields

Income investors groaned at the news of the Fed’s recent decision to hold rates in their near-zero rate rut until late 2014. That could mean nearly three years until we see an uptick in interest rates which points to three years of scrapping for steady income around markets as interest rates of 0.25% are less than enticing for most investors. But for those who live and die by dividend yields, there are still a number of options available, especially in the commodity space. Investing on the equity side of commodities can offer low correlation (though not nearly as low as the direct commodity itself) while providing a handsome income stream [see also 12 High-Yielding Commodities For 2012].

Posted in Agriculture, Coal, Commodity Producers, Dividends, Energy, Exclusive, Natural Gas, WTI | Tagged , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Commodity Trading Trends: Crude Making Its Way Up?

After peaking above $100/barrel last month, crude oil endured a bit of a slide the mid $90s, but its momentum seems to have shifted. After a big day yesterday, February has seen crude futures begin to make their way back up, much to the delight of many investors. For the trailing weeks, the biggest story surrounding crude oil has been the tensions surrounding Iran. The nation, who controls a narrow body of water through which a large proportion of the world’s oil passes, has been threatening to cut off oil to the U.S. as well as other parts of the world. While WTI is the commodity of focus here in the States, brent oil has also been on a tear as of late [see also Crude Oil Guide: Brent Vs. WTI, What’s The Difference?].

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