The old adage “history repeats itself” has been applied to all facets of the investing world, but it’s especially apparent in the commodity world. With most assets displaying cyclical returns and seasonality, the history of many commodities is bound to repeat itself the following year. When it comes to gold, Peter Schiff believes that the phrase points the path to a major run up in gold that few investors will be counting on [for more gold news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
With the first half of 2013 coming to an end, many investors are taking time to look back and see which portions of their portfolios will need revaluation, with many now worried that the commodity super cycle is drawing to a close. Though some commodities fared well in the first six month of the year, many failed to keep pace. Below, we outline the three worst performing commodities so far in 2013 to give investors a better idea of how the year is shaping up [for more commodity news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
The hits just keep coming for gold. As markets finally calmed after Bernanke’s announcement of imminent tapering from the Fed, gold continues to get slaughtered. With many predicting the metal to eventually lose its grip on the quadruple digit levels, investors are trying to properly time the bottom. The problem is, a number of gold’s movements have seemed to defy all logic with harsh sell-offs coming off of little fundamental news or changes; emotional trading has taken hold [for more gold news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
As the decade opened, precious metals (namely gold) were among the most popular commodities for long-term investors. Many had grown comfortable with the commodities as safe haven assets that would help to protect their portfolios from inflation and any unforeseen market dips. But Ben Bernanke may have let the air out of the precious metals world when he announced that the Fed would begin tapering its bond purchasing late this year or in early 2014 [for more precious metals news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
UPDATE: Including the 6/20 sell-off, Paulson’s GLD position has lost more than $800 million as GLD sank well below $125. It has been a rough couple of months for gold bugs. With the precious metal slowly declining in price since the start of 2013, April’s nose dive has driven many investors out of the commodity once considered a “safe haven.” Down nearly 17% this year and almost 30% from September 2011 highs, the best years of gold investing seem behind us. What was once thought of as a darling of the commodity space is now an asset that has destroyed a number of portfolios in recent years, and even fooled a few famous traders [for more commodity news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
Legendary commodity investor Jim Rogers has never been shy about vocalizing his opinions about the investing world. In particular, Rogers has an affinity for commodities like ags and precious metals. Gold has been one of the most talked about hard assets of the last two years, as the metal soared to all-time highs, only to watch its price take a tumble in the months that followed. All along the way, Rogers had been calling for a correction for gold, and it is a sentiment that he still holds today [for more gold news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
Dr. Doom is back in the news, this time predicting the end of the gold bubble. While this claim may seem outlandish to some, analysts are hard pressed to ignore Nouriel Roubini, after his prediction of the 2008 financial crisis fell on deaf ears. The chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor at NYU Stern School of Business, Roubini has always had strong opinions on gold and the precious metals space ,and his newest sentiment for the metal is likely to cause many to reconsider their holdings [for more precious metal news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
Wall Street was in for some choppy trading sessions this week, as investors shifted their attention to the Fed and its massive stimulus measures. Earlier this week, markets took their cue from comments made by three Fed officials. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans had stated that while the central bank’s stimulus measures have made good progress, officials need “more time” before they can make any substantial monetary policy changes. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s and New York Fed President William Dudley’s commentary also reflected this sentiment, though Dudley indicated that the Fed could change asset purchases in either direction [for more market news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
The commodities front remains mixed as the U.S. dollar’s recent rally has put downward pressures on many resource prices. Furthermore, the ongoing bull run on Wall Street has prompted many investors waiting on the sidelines to jump into equities in lieu of chasing paltry yields in the bond market or lackluster returns in the commodities space [for more market news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter]. Surprisingly, gold has managed to keep afloat in recent weeks amid the stock market euphoria, which is a commendable feat given the extreme selling pressures it saw earlier in April. The outlook for the yellow metal remains mixed, however, as technical patterns and currency market trends are hinting at another round of selling in the near future.
Even gold bugs have to admit that the yellow metal has seen better days. After hitting record lows on April 15th, many analysts have speculated that gold may no longer be a viable investment option, at least not in the way it has been in the past five years. With investor faith and gold prices reaching fresh lows, some see these new market conditions as an opportunity. Well-known for his high opinion of gold and commodity centered investment strategies, Peter Schiff thinks these low prices could provide a huge payoff for savvy investors who are willing to continue gambling with gold prices [for more gold news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].