It seems that the collapse of the euro, and possibly a global financial market correction, has become more likely than not in the next few year. It started with the fiscal disaster otherwise known as Greece, which has public debt equal to 166% of total GDP. But as time went on, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland all joined the race, with the latter four nations all faced with debts totaling to more than 100% of GDP (and let’s not even think about France’s 87% ratio of the same caliber) [see also Warning: Ignore Bill Gross’ Hard Money Prediction At Your Own Risk].
“It’s coming again” warned commodity legend Jim Rogers earlier this week. When asked about the future of the U.S. economy Rogers had a pessimistic outlook, as he feels that the global financial landscape is simply too volatile to avoid another recession. And what’s more, Rogers thinks this next one will be worse than 2008. He cites the recessions in 2002 and 2008, stating that the 2008 recession was so much worse because of higher debts. Now, in 2012, debts are even higher, leading Rogers to believe that the coming recession will be even worse [for more commodity news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
Energy: I do not like the action in Crude so I advised clients to cut their shorts in half. Do not misinterpret me; I am not getting long but rather lightening up on short trades. Though I do not agree with the acceleration of commodities that we are seeing, I refuse to fight it. Hedgers should also start to wade into longs in heating oil and RBOB to protect from upside spikes. My suggestion is a long future against a sale of out of the money calls 1:1. High to low natural gas moved 30 cents. Tighten up stops just below the 18 day MA which should ensure at least a small profit unless we gap down tomorrow. My take is if we break that level we may get a chance to get one more buy below the $2 level…stay tuned.
For the past few years, the investing world has turned gold into its darling commodity, as its meteoric rise was well-documented and thrust into the forefront of major media and news sites. All the while, its sister metal silver received very little attention by comparison. Now, many see gold as a great portfolio diversifying agent, a sound inflation hedge, as well as a great place to grow initial capital. While gold may be poised for a bright future, silver may present an even greater opportunity that investors would do well not to ignore [see also 25 Ways To Invest In Silver].
The past week has seen a continued run in the bull market that has defined 2012. With economic data coming in strong on the home front and euro fears subsiding for the time being, the majority of assets have enjoyed healthy gains on the year. Commodities, on the other hand, are a different story. Given their inherent volatility, the direction of equity markets is often irrelevant to how a particular commodity behaves; it often comes down to economic trends and trading habits. The trailing five day period has watched sugar futures soar by more than 7.6% while silver has sank by roughly 3.4% [see also 25 Ways To Invest In Silver].
Its been more than four years since financial markets took their unprecedented nose dive, and yet some investors still cringe at the mere mention of the year that most wish they could forget. The crash of 2008 shook markets around globe, hammering down prices in nearly every corner of the investable universe. On March 9th 2009, investors were finally able to see the light at the end of the tunnel as rock-bottom markets prepared to make their turnaround. The pickup spurred investors’ appetites for riskier asset classes, luring many to the lucrative world of commodity investing. For the most part, commodities can find a place in almost everyone’s portfolio; the asset class can provide uncorrelated returns and diversification benefits, as well as serve as a potential hedge against inflationary pressures [see also 12 High-Yielding Commodities For 2012].
As 2012 wears on, investors seem less and less sure how the year will end. Some feel that the early bull market we experienced is here to stay and that strong U.S. data only supports that claim. But others feel that such rapid appreciations in stock markets mean that we are about due for a pullback, potentially ending the year on a sour note. No matter which way you feel about the economy, there are always strategies to make a trading profit, and for the time being it looks like precious metals are it. These four metals have been steadily outperforming their commodity peers in recent trading sessions and are presenting a strong play [see also Three Reasons Why Gold Is Overvalued].
When investors think of precious metals, their go to image is gold. Gold has gobbled up headlines over the past year as it has smashed through historical highs and been a major point of contention among the financial world. But digging deeper than gold, there is another precious metal that is outperforming its popular counterpart; silver. While gold’s massive gains were thrust into the spotlight, silver has been able to provide massive returns without all of the fame and popularity. The investment thesis behind silver is also different from gold, as silver is a relatively practical metal from an industrial standpoint, but is also used as a safe haven metal much like gold [see also Why No Investor Should Own GLD].
Silver has been one of the most talked about commodities over the past few years thanks to its massive price swings. After a dismal 2008, silver prices soared for the next two years including an approximate 80% appreciation in 2010 alone. Then came 2011, which brought silver back down to earth despite impressive spikes intra-year. With losses piling up to more than 10% in the previous year, investors were quick to sell out of the flailing precious metal. It’s poor performance, however, came as a major surprise especially considering that gold was up by about the same margin that silver surrendered. But now that 2012 is underway, silver may be poised for another break-out year [see also 25 Ways To Invest In Silver].
Commodity investing has been extremely popular in recent years as investors have discovered the benefits that these investments can offer for an individual portfolio. Exposure to commodities offers benefits like low correlation, inflation hedges, and also heavy exposure to some of the world’s fastest growing markets. But there is still something of a disconnect between income investors and commodities, as these investments are typically seen as growth plays or simply left for active traders. But those who overlook commodity stocks with even mediocre yields could be missing out [see also Jim Rogers Says: Buy Commodities Now, Or You’ll Hate Yourself Later].