Do You Buy In To The Precious Metals Rally?

Even before the announcement of QE3, precious metals had been holding their own in 2012. But ever since Bernanke initiated what some have called a “kamikaze” monetary policy, these coveted assets have enjoyed stellar performances. For the month of September, gold and silver jumped a healthy 4.7% and 8.7% respectively. With both of these assets on a nice tear in the past few weeks, some are calling for a correction, while others feel that there is no turning back for these two commodity juggernauts [for more precious metals news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].

Potentially, both camps could be in the right in this situation. After such a massive run-up this summer, it would not be surprising to see some investors take profits in the short term, putting the metals in a slump. Afterwards, however, the global easing programs around the world and insatiable demand for these safe haven assets lays a pretty nice path for the two metals, leaving them plenty of room to run. The only question you have to ask yourself is which umbrella you fall under and what you plan to do about it.

You will always have analysts calling for $5,000 gold and $100 silver but the short term is nearly impossible to predict. To better assess the situation, there are a couple of factors that investors should take into consideration. Silver is a much more volatile metal than gold, so when things are good they’re great, but when things go bad, it can get ugly. Silver, however, is much further off of its historical highs than gold is, suggesting it may be undervalued. Another factor to keep in mind is when Bernanke plans to end QE3. Though this is very unlikely to end anytime soon, the expiration of that program will no doubt have some negative ramifications for these two assets [see also Three Reasons Why Gold Is Overvalued].

Below, we outline two ETFs to keep a close eye on as the precious metals rally continues to play out.

  • SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): The most popular commodity ETF out there, GLD has more than $75 million in assets as it tracks physical gold. GLD has rapidly become the standard for gold investing, as it trades more than 12 million times each day. Note that the fund is physically-backed and will therefore be taxed as a collectible, meaning you pay 28% on both short and long term capital gains.
  • iShares Silver Trust (SLV): The physically-backed silver fund is the front-runner for securities tracking the white metal. SLV has just under $11 billion in assets and has been trading roughly 16.7 million times per day for the past month.

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Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

This entry was posted in Actionable Ideas, Asset Allocation, Commodity ETFs, Gold, Precious Metals, Silver and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Commodity HQ is not an investment advisor, and any content published by Commodity HQ does not constitute individual investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities or investment assets. Read the full disclaimer here.

4 Responses to “Do You Buy In To The Precious Metals Rally?”

  1. [...] This article was originally written by Jared Cummans, and posted on CommodityHQ. [...]

  2. [...] 42% respectively. Compare this to SLV’s gains of 22% and it is clear that these funds have been stellar on the year. Note that silver is more volatile than gold, and its big movements on the year are what account [...]

  3. [...] Working off his statements of QE3, Schiff feels that “Helicopter Ben” will continue to print until we “OD on cheap money” and inflation begins to kick up. Once inflation starts kicking up, the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates which will have a devastating impact on our economy, and send us into a deeper recession than 2008. He made it a point to note that his book “Crash Proof – How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse” was not written about the 2008 crash, but rather what would come after that initial recession, which he predicted at a different juncture. To account for the coming financial collapse, Schiff insisted on buying gold on the dips and holding, because he thinks that one day the precious metal will rally and never look back [see also Do You Buy In To The Precious Metals Rally?]. [...]

  4. [...] When examining this fund”s performance for this previous year, the characteristic that stands out is volatility. Beginning the year trading around, and for a time, above, $55 per share, GDX started off 2012 strong. However, by the end of May, the fund had dropped below $40 per share, remaining under $45 per share until after the start of August. This dip in price was a result of a number of factors, including a decrease in demand for gold, a consequence of the weakened state of the euro in relation to the dollar caused by the ongoing financial crisis in Europe [see also Do You Buy In To The Precious Metals Rally?]. [...]

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