Posts By Matthew
Commodity Trading Outlook: The Line in the Sand
Commodity trading can be a difficult beast to tame. Those who do choose to trade these highly volatile assets need to be up to date on their information while always keeping a watchful eye on markets. Those who do not closely monitor their positions or do not have a calculated goal with each commodity allocation can often end up on the receiving end of a sour trade. In an effort to help traders make the most educated decisions possible, we break down each major commodity by its technicals in the following table giving traders more insight into the developing trends of your favorite futures contracts. Note that this table is only relevant for the current week of 5/14 – 5/18.
Back in the Green
Energy: For the first time in seven trading sessions Crude made a higher high and higher low as prices will close virtually unchanged today. Sales between $96-97 continue to get rejected. I would not rule out a sideways congestion and on a settlement back above $98 I would venture to say increase bullish exposure. For now I would be lightly scaling into longs as long as $96 holds on a closing basis in June. RBOB failed to remain above $3 closing slightly lower today. Next support is seen at $2.97…that level needs to hold in June.
Commodity Trading Outlook: The Line in the Sand
Commodity trading can be a difficult beast to tame. Those who do choose to trade these highly volatile assets need to be up to date on their information while always keeping a watchful eye on markets. Those who do not closely monitor their positions or do not have a calculated goal with each commodity allocation can often end up on the receiving end of a sour trade. In an effort to help traders make the most educated decisions possible, we break down each major commodity by its technicals in the following table giving traders more insight into the developing trends of your favorite futures contracts. Note that this table is only relevant for the current week of 5/7 – 5/11.
Commodity Trading Outlook: The Line in the Sand
Commodity trading can be a difficult beast to tame. Those who do choose to trade these highly volatile assets need to be up to date on their information while always keeping a watchful eye on markets. Those who do not closely monitor their positions or do not have a calculated goal with each commodity allocation can often end up on the receiving end of a sour trade. In an effort to help traders make the most educated decisions possible, we break down each major commodity by its technicals in the following table giving traders more insight into the developing trends of your favorite futures contracts. Note that this table is only relevant for the current week of 4/30 – 5/4.
China, The 800 lb. Gorilla
A positive GDP number out of China influences commodities today. I think today was an overreaction, but a good sign medium and longer term. Crude picked up 1% today and has quickly pulled away from the very critical $100 mark with prices approaching $104/barrel. I maintain that if we stay below $104 on a settlement basis going into the weekend we will see a sub $100 trade next week. My target remains 97.50 in May futures. I believe, today, the case was the strength in the distillates lifted Crude.
Decision Time For Commodities
A number of markets not limited to the indices and Crude but as examples have reached critical technical levels as a decision on the next legs should take place very soon. Avid followers know I am calling for a further reduction in both aforementioned markets. The 100 day MA continues to act as a magnet as for pricing in the front month Crude contract. On any spikes as long as prices stay below $104 I remain bearish with my target still at $97.50. My take is when prices breach $100 we should experience a fairly violent trade lower…just saying. It appears heating oil is on the verge of breaking the 100 day MA as well while RBOB is still 25 cents above that pivot point. More downside to come in this complex is my take. Natural gas is below $2 a prediction I hinted at several weeks ago. I have yet to issue a buy rec and … See the full story here
Daily Commodity Roundup: 4/10/2012
As stocks go so does the market. I expect the decline in equities to lead to further depreciation elsewhere…consider yourself warned. Crude makes a lower low today and I expect prices to be under $100 for the first time since early February very soon. My target remains $97.50 in May Crude. RBOB and heating oil also appear to be headed lower as another 15 cents south should be the mark if Crude hits my target…trade accordingly. Expect natural gas to be below $2 this week. I had a few clients call today looking to be a buyer…I say hold off until there is a catalyst to justify a bottom. Where do prices bottom $1.80…1.60…1.40 who knows?
Daily Commodity Roundup: 4/9/2012
May Crude traded within 80 cents of $100 and below the 100 day MA for the third session in a row. This support level is a big deal so I expected a fight. My contention is a break below that level in the coming sessions drags May to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $97.50. I told my clients that are short today that we’ve likely gotten 60-70% of the profit out of the trade and not to get greedy. Though $92-96 is feasible we will cut and run around $97 if given the opportunity. Another $3-5 depreciation in Crude should pressure the distillates 10-15 cents further.