Posts By Matthew


Commodity Trading Outlook: The Line in the Sand

Commodity trading can be a difficult beast to tame. Those who do choose to trade these highly volatile assets need to be up to date on their information while always keeping a watchful eye on markets. Those who do not closely monitor their positions or do not have a calculated goal with each commodity allocation can often end up on the receiving end of a sour trade. In an effort to help traders make the most educated decisions possible, we break down each major commodity by its technicals in the following table giving traders more insight into the developing trends of your favorite futures contracts. Note that this table is only relevant for the current week of 5/14 – 5/18.

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Back in the Green

Energy: For the first time in seven trading sessions Crude made a higher high and higher low as prices will close virtually unchanged today. Sales between $96-97 continue to get rejected. I would not rule out a sideways congestion and on a settlement back above $98 I would venture to say increase bullish exposure. For now I would be lightly scaling into longs as long as $96 holds on a closing basis in June. RBOB failed to remain above $3 closing slightly lower today. Next support is seen at $2.97…that level needs to hold in June.

Posted in Daily Commodity Roundup | Leave a comment

Commodity Trading Outlook: The Line in the Sand

Commodity trading can be a difficult beast to tame. Those who do choose to trade these highly volatile assets need to be up to date on their information while always keeping a watchful eye on markets. Those who do not closely monitor their positions or do not have a calculated goal with each commodity allocation can often end up on the receiving end of a sour trade. In an effort to help traders make the most educated decisions possible, we break down each major commodity by its technicals in the following table giving traders more insight into the developing trends of your favorite futures contracts. Note that this table is only relevant for the current week of 5/7 – 5/11.

Posted in Commodity Futures, Commodity Trading Outlook, Exclusive | Leave a comment

Commodity Trading Outlook: The Line in the Sand

Commodity trading can be a difficult beast to tame. Those who do choose to trade these highly volatile assets need to be up to date on their information while always keeping a watchful eye on markets. Those who do not closely monitor their positions or do not have a calculated goal with each commodity allocation can often end up on the receiving end of a sour trade. In an effort to help traders make the most educated decisions possible, we break down each major commodity by its technicals in the following table giving traders more insight into the developing trends of your favorite futures contracts. Note that this table is only relevant for the current week of 4/30 – 5/4.

Posted in Commodity Futures, Commodity Trading Outlook, Exclusive | Leave a comment

When in Doubt Go to Cash

Energy:I do not like the action in Crude so I advised clients to cut their shorts in half. Do not misinterpret me; I am not getting long but rather lightening up on short trades. Though I do not agree with the acceleration of commodities that we are seeing, I refuse to fight it. Hedgers should also start to wade into longs in heating oil and RBOB to protect from upside spikes. My suggestion is a long future against a sale of out of the money calls 1:1. High to low natural gas moved 30 cents. Tighten up stops just below the 18 day MA which should ensure at least a small profit unless we gap down tomorrow. My take is if we break that level we may get a chance to get one more buy below the $2 level…stay tuned.

Posted in Agriculture, Commodity Futures, Copper, Corn, Energy, Exclusive, Gold, Industrial Metals, Livestock, Natural Gas, Precious Metals, Silver, Soybeans, WTI | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

China, The 800 lb. Gorilla

A positive GDP number out of China influences commodities today. I think today was an overreaction, but a good sign medium and longer term. Crude picked up 1% today and has quickly pulled away from the very critical $100 mark with prices approaching $104/barrel. I maintain that if we stay below $104 on a settlement basis going into the weekend we will see a sub $100 trade next week. My target remains 97.50 in May futures. I believe, today, the case was the strength in the distillates lifted Crude.

Posted in Agriculture, Cocoa, Commodity Futures, Exclusive, Livestock, Orange Juice, Soybeans | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Decision Time For Commodities

A number of markets not limited to the indices and Crude but as examples have reached critical technical levels as a decision on the next legs should take place very soon. Avid followers know I am calling for a further reduction in both aforementioned markets. The 100 day MA continues to act as a magnet as for pricing in the front month Crude contract. On any spikes as long as prices stay below $104 I remain bearish with my target still at $97.50.  My take is when prices breach $100 we should experience a fairly violent trade lower…just saying. It appears heating oil is on the verge of breaking the 100 day MA as well while RBOB is still 25 cents above that pivot point. More downside to come in this complex is my take. Natural gas is below $2 a prediction I hinted at several weeks ago. I have yet to issue a buy rec and … See the full story here

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Daily Commodity Roundup: 4/10/2012

As stocks go so does the market. I expect the decline in equities to lead to further depreciation elsewhere…consider yourself warned. Crude makes a lower low today and I expect prices to be under $100 for the first time since early February very soon. My target remains $97.50 in May Crude. RBOB and heating oil also appear to be headed lower as another 15 cents south should be the mark if Crude hits my target…trade accordingly. Expect natural gas to be below $2 this week. I had a few clients call today looking to be a buyer…I say hold off until there is a catalyst to justify a bottom. Where do prices bottom $1.80…1.60…1.40 who knows?

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Daily Commodity Roundup: 4/9/2012

May Crude traded within 80 cents of $100 and below the 100 day MA for the third session in a row. This support level is a big deal so I expected a fight. My contention is a break below that level in the coming sessions drags May to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $97.50. I told my clients that are short today that we’ve likely gotten 60-70% of the profit out of the trade and not to get greedy. Though $92-96 is feasible we will cut and run around $97 if given the opportunity. Another $3-5 depreciation in Crude should pressure the distillates 10-15 cents further.

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Without the FED…Now What

Without further stimulus if the markets are forced to stand on their own two legs we should see a further retracement. My opinion on most commodities with a few exceptions is we have risk of more downside. Crude oil bounced off the 100 day MA today regaining 2/3 of yesterday’s losses closing 1.7% higher. I admit I expected some follow through today but the momentum is clearly shifting to the bears. I may be the minority but I am still looking for a sub $100 trade. My expectation is on a trade in May below $100 we could quickly move to $97.50…my target. Both heating oil and RBOB are at the lower end of their recent trading range as I expect a further sell off. Remember a $1 move in Crude should equate to a 3-4 cent move in the distillates. That would mean if the stars aligned and Crude … See the full story here

Posted in Agriculture, Energy, Exclusive, Gold, Natural Gas, Precious Metals, Silver, Trading, WTI | Leave a comment