The Breakfast Spread is a weekly look at agricultural commodity news and market commentary from around the world.
Australian production continues to pressure the price of oats, with futures trading at 2.344 a bushel. The recent merger announcement between grain co-operative CBH Group and producer Blue Lake Mining is expected to strengthen supply throughout South East Asia. Analysts expect this to have an effect on the long-term price of oats.
Stabilizing after a 17% fall in July, trader sentiment shifted this week after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recorded a sale of 126,900 tons. September futures rose to $4.99 ¼ a bushel.
According to a National Australia Bank report, the Australian harvest could reach 21.6 million metric tons due to recent favourable conditions.
Drought fears out of Brazil could lead to a supply shortage in the 17 sieve grade Arabica coffee, with analysts estimating that only between 10%-20% of the beans are ready for global export. This comes after February’s 6% rise in price due to fears of another lacklustre supply year.
Sugar prices continued to slide during the week, with the commodity falling to 7-year lows at 11 cents a pound. German bank Commerzbank noted that Brazilian supply has driven prices lower, in turn affecting revenues and margins for sugar cane farmers. Agricultural analysts have discounted the effects of the recent currency movements in the USD and Brazilian real on the price.
Recent weather conditions in the Midwest have sparked production concerns, with the cash pricing rising considerably in June/July before settling at $3.76 a bushel. Still considerably lower than the 2012 highs of $8.70, corn prices have experienced a spike in volatility in the last three months due to whipsaw rain and drought conditions.
The EU recently confirmed that dry conditions on the continent could affect seasonal supply by over 3-4 million tonnes.
Hurricane season concerns pushed frozen concentrated orange juice futures higher on Wednesday. Trading at 131.75, the price has extended through key resistance levels set in March and April.
October futures were slightly weaker on Wednesday at 67.05. Recent volatility in the market has been attributed to Chinese demand, with expensive high grade pork becoming increasingly more popular.
Global milk and dairy demand continues to benefit retailers, with prices touching 13-year lows off the back of a fall in demand from Emerging Markets. Speculation of a Chinese slowdown and fears that Russian sanctions could further pressure the price has led to a shift in trader sentiment.
This month will see New Zealand production step up a gear as spring approaches. NZ accounts for a significant portion of global dairy supply.
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